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Alpha Researcher initiates coverage of the mobile game developer and publisher G5 Entertainment following Q1 2018.
The company is currently one of our.
Company strategy and history From developer to developer and publisher.
From unlockable games to free-to-play games G5 Entertainmentlisted on Nasdaq Download top paid games for android free Small Cap, is a company having solid history and experience from the mobile games industry.
It was founded in 2001 by Vlad Suglobov, Alexander Tabunov and Sergey Shults.
Currently Vlad Suglobov is acting CEO and is stationed in San Francisco.
The company as a whole has 203 employees in five locations.
In early years G5 mainly developed games for publishers such as Electronic Arts and Disney.
As the mobile games market kept growing the company management soon came to realize their opportunity.
They eventually took it and as a result G5 has been both an independent developer and publisher since 2009.
From 2009 to 2018 G5 mostly developed and published so called unlockable games.
A game that is unlockable is sold as a complete game through one transaction only.
Unlockable games hardly require any support- or maintenance after release.
The player buys the whole game, plays it and then looks for another game.
As the market climate changed G5 Entertainment eventually shifted their strategy from unlockable games to free-to-play games F2P.
However, one may argue that their shift towards the fast growing F2P trend did not happen quickly enough.
In retrospect it was a strategic miss that ultimately led to large intangible write-offs in 2018.
F2P games are in contrast to unlockable games free to download and free to play, but contain features which encourage players to make several so called micro-transactions, or micro-payments.
The F2P model has been proven to be more profitable than the unlockable, since gamers on average are spending more money on F2P games than on unlockable games.
Additionally, the F2P model enables developers and publishers to build a base of loyal gamers and also to prolong the lifetime of their games.
New content, for example new levels, ultimately leads to returning gamers that once again spend money on the game.
In other words a F2P game can be monetized multiple times, but it also costs more to maintain after it has been released in comparision to an unlockable game.
The company has historically focused on casual games such as hidden object games HOGtime management games and puzzle games.
Of these games Mahjong Journey, Virtual City and Farm Clan Download top paid games for android free Tribe are fully owned by G5 Entertainment.
North America is their geographically most important market.
In 2018 around 50 percent of their revenues were generated in North America, 25 percent in Europe and the rest from other parts of the world.
It is therefore likely that North America will remain as their main market in the short- to mid term.
In the next section we will have a deeper look at the market.
Market Continued strong growth rate going forward The market for mobile games, or more precisely games for smartphones and tablets, is currently the fastest growing segment for games on a global basis.
By end of 2018 the mobile games market is expected to represent about one third of the total market for games.
In only a few years it might even have conquered half of it.
According to the research firm Newzoo the global market for mobile games was worth USD 24.
Revenues download top paid games for android free on smartphones grew by 33 percent to USD 17 billion and revenues generated on tablets grew by 57 percent to USD 7.
In 2018 the global market for mobile games is expected to be worth approximately USD 40 billion.
This implies a CAGR of 18 percent up until then.
If digging deeper into these numbers it is clear that the market for tablet games is expected to grow faster than the one for smartphone games.
The market for tablet games is expected to grow 23 percent per year up until 2018, compared to 12 percent per year for the smartphone games market.
The geographically most profitable market in terms of average revenue per user ARPU is the one in United States.
According to Newzoo around 45 percent of U.
S mobile gamers are spending money on their gaming.
S also has the largest share of big spenders.
Currently the most revenue generating F2P game on iOS in the U.
S is selling for USD 3.
To reach paying gamers the developers and publishers need to market their games and acquire users.
According to the marketing company Fiksu the cost per install CPI has recently reached record levels on both iOS and Android.
The trend of continuously increasing cost per install is therefore intact.
G5 has communicated that they for the moment are receiving more in return for every dollar that they are spending on marketing.
Investment case In-house developed games and a growing top-line G5 Entertainment shift towards the F2P segment is now behind them.
In upcoming years we expect that the underlying F2P market will continue to show doubble digit growth rates.
At the same time we expect that G5 will outgrow it.
However, new games such as Mahjong Journey are on the rise along with a few other games whose recent updates have been well received by the market.
Currently the most notable grossing rank for the game is a top 122 placement for iPad games in the United States and a top 67 placement for iPad games in UK.
The reason for this is that G5 does not have to pay any royalties for revenues generated by games like Mahjong Journey.
At the same time it is however likely that G5 will increase their marketing spending even further if the share of royalties paid is decreasing in relation to net revenues.
Hence we do not expect any significant margin expansion in the short-term.
In the beginning of May G5 announced that they will acquire all rights for the game Brave Tribe, which they now have re-branded as Farm Clan.
Observe that the numbers merely are rough estimates generated from an in-house developed model which is taking several factors into consideration.
During 2018 we believe that G5 Entertainment will release one or two in-house developed F2P games, and publish at least one new F2P game which is externally developed.
G5 has already developed a publishing platform that attracts external developers who wants to distribute their games on it.
We believe that the interest for this platform will increase going forward.
We expect net revenues to grow another 68 percent to SEK 305 million this year, or SEK 435 million if using gross revenues.
New games will eventually contribute as well.
Not an impressive number given historical margins above 30 percent, but if adjusting for extraordinary items it was 7.
In Q2 2018 G5 significantly increased their marketing spending.
As a result their trailing twelve months adjusted EBIT margin is at 6.
If making rough adjustments for extraordinary items, such as currency effects on operational download top paid for free and liabilities, we estimate that the adjusted EBIT margin for the quarter was 8.
For the full-year we expect an adjusted EBIT margin of 9 percent.
The two charts below display quarterly figures and estimates, as well as trailing 12 month figures.
As previously mentioned the company is expected to continue to invest in marketing user acquisitions.
In 2018 the company spent on average 21.
In total their marketing spending amounted to SEK 38.
In 2018 we expect that 32.
Normally such an increase of marketing spending would imply plummeting margins, but in combination with a larger revenue share from in-house developed games we expect that the cost increase will download top paid games for android free almost fully offset by these.
These factors combined should boost the adjusted EBIT margin to 8.
For 2018 we estimate a top-line growth of 40 percent and a slightly improved EBIT margin that is expected to reach 11.
EBIT next year is hence estimated to SEK 49.
Estimates for 2018 and 2018 are displayed in the next section.
Estimates Estimates for upcoming years are displayed in the table below along with a few valuation multiples.
Summary and conclusion The mobile games market is a market with strong underlying growth.
G5 Entertainment has in recent years transformed their business to the popular F2P model free to play and in 2018 the company grew its revenues by 82 percent.
We expect revenues to grow another 68 percent this year.
Currently G5 gain more than they spend per acquired user, which ultimately leads to an increased user base for future game titles.
This strategy will however download top paid games for android free margins and prohibit them from any significant expansion in the short- to mid-term.
TSS has continuously since mid-2018 been placed among top 50 of the most revenue generating games top grossing games on iPad in the United States.
List placements in other countries has also been pleasing, but the United States is download top paid games for android free far the most important market for G5.
Recently the company released a puzzle game calledwhich is developed in-house and has been well recieved by gamers at both the iOS- and the Amazon app store.
Unlike TSS G5 does not have to pay any royalties for Mahjong Journey since it is developed in-house.
Future financial success is therefore highly dependent on the performance of in-house developed games like Mahjong Journey.
We believe that Mahjong Journey has the characteristics of becoming at least a top 100 grossing game in some of the most important markets.
Currently it is ranked top 10 on several Amazon markets.
The share of paid royalties will hence decrease in relation to revenues and eventually give rise to somewhat higher margins and earnings.
In 2018 the adjusted EBIT-margin was 7.
We expect the adjusted EBIT-margin to increase to around 9 percent of net revenues in 2018 6.
We expect those costs to increase from 21 to 32 percent out of full-year net revenues in 2018.
Adjusted EPS should hence be able to reach SEK 2.
Those estimates imply an appealing PER of 14.
The analyst owns shares in the company.
Alpha Researcher does not take any responsibility for investments made in G5 Entertainment.
The analysis should absolutely not be seen as any investment advice.
Alpha Researcher will not be responsible for any errors or omissions in this analysis or article.
Remember that no one but yourself is responsible for your own investments.
The author of Alpha Researcher is a conservatarian and an advocate of free speech and empiricism.
The blog's goal is to provide and host investment ideas, freethinking and diversified discussion.
Content published on Alpha Researcher will mainly focus on IT- Tech- and Media related topics associated to the financial markets.
Gaming and politics will also be frequently discussed.